The Effectiveness of Sanctions Imposed by Western Countries on the Russian Federation Regarding Dual-Use Goods

This bachelor's thesis examines the effectiveness of sanctions imposed by Western countries on the Russian Federation in relation to dual-use goods – i.e., products and technologies that can be used for both civilian and military purposes. The thesis analyses the extent to which these sanctions have actually limited Russia’s ability to acquire key components for the production of military technology and how Russia attempts to circumvent these restrictions. Particular attention is paid to the role of transit countries (Kazakhstan, Turkey, Armenia, Uzbekistan, and China), mechanisms of re-export, parallel import, and the use of alternative payment systems. The work is based on a quantitative analysis of trade statistics and expert sources and assesses the impact of sanctions both from a macroeconomic perspective and in terms of Russia's capacity to continue military production. The findings indicate that despite certain restrictions, the sanctions only partially limit Russia’s access to Western technologies. This is mainly due to insufficient international coordination and active circumvention of sanctions via third countries.