Can China become the world’s largest economy in the near future?

This bachelor thesis examines the question of whether China can become the world's largest economy in the near future. The thesis is structured into three main chapters. The first chapter analyzes the historical development of the economies of China and the United States, emphasizing key milestones and different trajectories of their economic development. The second chapter provides a comprehensive analysis of the current economic strength of both powers through a comparison of macroeconomic indicators, financial systems, technological competitiveness, demographic and institutional factors. The third chapter presents projections of China's potential economic overtaking of the US economy in various future development scenarios. Methodologically, the thesis employs the principle of compound interest at different assumed rates of economic growth, based on current predictions of international institutions. The results of the analysis show that in an optimistic scenario, China could overtake the US in nominal GDP around 2037- 2038, in the baseline scenario approximately in 2043-2045, while in the conservative scenario, the overtaking would not occur within the horizon until 2050. The thesis also identifies key factors that will determine the probability and timing of a potential overtaking, including demographic development, factor productivity, and the success of rebalancing the Chinese economy.