Analysis of Brexit impact on trade, migration of labour force and economic growth of UK and EU countries 2003-2023

The thesis examines the impact of Brexit on migration flows, trade intensity and economic growth in the UK and the European Union. The aim of this thesis is to confirm the hypothesis of a negative impact of Brexit on selected indicators. Using quarterly data for these indicators, this impact is examined using the Difference-in-Differences method. Two main periods are examined. The first is defined from the third quarter of 2016 onwards and represents the period after the referendum on the UK's withdrawal from the European Union. The second period is defined by the UK's exit, i.e. from the second quarter of 2020. Impacts are examined against several selected control countries, notably Germany, Ireland and France. The results suggest that Brexit has negatively affected trade intensity between the UK and the EU15 countries. Migration flows between with EU27 countries were also negatively affected. However, due to the weak parallel trend in the interaction pairs, a causal explanation cannot be reached. Despite expectations and publications by leading agencies, the effects on economic growth are positive, which may be due to the nature of the DID method and other exogenous shocks.