The impact of macroeconomic shocks on real estate prices in the Czech Republic and Austria

The aim of this bachelor thesis is to evaluate the impacts of macroeconomic shocks on the development of residential property prices in the Czech Republic and Austria in the period 2008–2024 and to identify differences in the sensitivity of both markets to selected economic variables. The thesis is based on theoretical knowledge of the business cycle, the functioning of the real estate market and the transmission mechanisms of macroeconomic shocks. The theoretical part also includes a description of institutional differences between the two countries, especially in the area of housing structure, financing and market regulation. The practical part uses an econometric approach based on ARDL models, which make it possible to analyse short-term and long-term relationships between property prices and macroeconomic indicators simultaneously. The calculations are carried out on quarterly data for the period 2008–2024 and include two separate models – for the Czech Republic and for Austria. The obtained long-term multipliers and short-term ECM specifications show that the Czech market is more sensitive to the development of the business cycle and changes in unemployment, whereas the Austrian market reacts more strongly to interest rates and inflation. The pronounced persistence of prices in both countries is confirmed by the high coefficient on the lagged value of the index. The interpretation of the results takes into account the limitations of the analysis, in particular the availability and structure of time series and the fact that the models capture correlations rather than causal relationships. Despite these limitations, the thesis provides a comprehensive overview of how macroeconomic shocks affect residential property prices in two different economic environments.