Verification of selected predictive models

The aim of this thesis is to verify selected predictive models. Specifically, the Kralicek Quicktest, the Creditworthiness Index, and the Aspekt Global Rating (AGR) will be used as a group of creditworthiness models, while the Neumaier Trustworthiness Index (IN 05), Altman’s bankruptcy model, Taffler’s model, and Ohlson’s bankruptcy model will be applied as a group of bankruptcy prediction models. These models will be tested on two pairs of companies over a four-year time horizon. In each pair, one company enters insolvency at the end of the monitored period, while the other maintains good financial health. This approach enables a clear comparison of the test results and allows an assessment of whether the models provide unambiguous conclusions, or whether the analyzed companies fall into the so-called grey zone, where the future development cannot be predicted with certainty. The first analyzed pair consists of 3M Company and General Motors Corporation, and the second pair comprises Třinecké Železárny, a. s. and Vítkovice Heavy Machinery, a. s.