Quantifying influence of pandemic, migration, fertility decline on population dynamics: sensitivity analysis approach

Thesis title: Quantifying influence of pandemic, migration, fertility decline on population dynamics: sensitivity analysis approach
Author: Vlassova, Polina
Thesis type: Diploma thesis
Supervisor: Miskolczi, Martina
Opponents: Hon, Filip
Thesis language: English
Abstract:
Given thesis examines behavior of Germany’s population in response to changes in three key demographic variables: mortality, fertility, and migration. The analysis is conducted through six distinct scenarios, each involving adjustments to one of these parameters. Using a cohort-component projection model, the study evaluates population behavior patterns, including variations in age and gender structure, over the period from 2023 to 2050. The analysis employs Python-based modelling techniques to simulate demographic dynamics. Results indicate that sudden, minor mortality shocks, such as pandemics, generate short-term demographic pressures, followed by a rebalancing in the Total Dependency Ratio. Migration contributes significantly to population stability by combatting natural decline and possesses producing effects comparable to those of fertility. However, unlike fertility, which has a gradual and cumulative influence, changes in migration cause an immediate demographic effect. Sensitivity analysis evaluates the responsiveness of the Total Dependency Ratio and quantifies changes in projected population to uncover underlying behavioral patterns. These findings provide valuable guidance for policymakers seeking to address demographic challenges and develop an integrated strategy to ensure a sustainable population structure in Germany.
Keywords: Population projection; sensitivity analysis; Germany; migration
Thesis title: Quantifying influence of pandemic, migration, fertility decline on population dynamics: sensitivity analysis approach
Author: Vlassova, Polina
Thesis type: Diplomová práce
Supervisor: Miskolczi, Martina
Opponents: Hon, Filip
Thesis language: English
Abstract:
Given thesis examines behavior of Germany’s population in response to changes in three key demographic variables: mortality, fertility, and migration. The analysis is conducted through six distinct scenarios, each involving adjustments to one of these parameters. Using a cohort-component projection model, the study evaluates population behavior patterns, including variations in age and gender structure, over the period from 2023 to 2050. The analysis employs Python-based modelling techniques to simulate demographic dynamics. Results indicate that sudden, minor mortality shocks, such as pandemics, generate short-term demographic pressures, followed by a rebalancing in the Total Dependency Ratio. Migration contributes significantly to population stability by combatting natural decline and possesses producing effects comparable to those of fertility. However, unlike fertility, which has a gradual and cumulative influence, changes in migration cause an immediate demographic effect. Sensitivity analysis evaluates the responsiveness of the Total Dependency Ratio and quantifies changes in projected population to uncover underlying behavioral patterns. These findings provide valuable guidance for policymakers seeking to address demographic challenges and develop an integrated strategy to ensure a sustainable population structure in Germany.
Keywords: migration; Population projection; sensitivity analysis; Germany

Information about study

Study programme: Economic Data Analysis/Data Analysis and Modeling
Type of study programme: Magisterský studijní program
Assigned degree: Ing.
Institutions assigning academic degree: Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze
Faculty: Faculty of Informatics and Statistics
Department: Department of Demography

Information on submission and defense

Date of assignment: 24. 10. 2024
Date of submission: 25. 6. 2025
Date of defense: 2025

Files for download

The files will be available after the defense of the thesis.

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