Beyond Replacement Migration: Evaluating Youth Retention and Prospective Aging in Czechia, 2024–2059
| Thesis title: | Beyond Replacement Migration: Evaluating Youth Retention and Prospective Aging in Czechia, 2024–2059 |
|---|---|
| Author: | Soto Juárez, Gerardo |
| Thesis type: | Diploma thesis |
| Supervisor: | Mazouch, Petr |
| Opponents: | Fiala, Tomáš |
| Thesis language: | English |
| Abstract: | This thesis studies how migration and youth retention could mitigate the demographic consequences of population aging in Czechia between 2024 and 2060. Beyond only forecasting, this thesis applies the United Nations’ replacement migration framework to estimate the number of migrants required to maintain either the total population or the working-age population at its 2024 level. The model improves on the original UN approach by introducing two extensions: (1) a prospective definition of working age based on the age at which remaining life expectancy falls below 15 years (RLE15), and (2) a youth-retention counterfactual estimating the demographic effect of reducing emigration among residents aged 20–34. |
| Keywords: | Aging population; Replacement migration; Support ratio |
| Thesis title: | Aging populations: Analyzing the impact of declining birth rates and its impact on the European economy |
|---|---|
| Author: | Soto Juárez, Gerardo |
| Thesis type: | Diplomová práce |
| Supervisor: | Mazouch, Petr |
| Opponents: | Fiala, Tomáš |
| Thesis language: | English |
| Abstract: | This thesis studies how migration and youth retention could mitigate the demographic consequences of population aging in Czechia between 2024 and 2060. Beyond only forecasting, this thesis applies the United Nations’ replacement migration framework to estimate the number of migrants required to maintain either the total population or the working-age population at its 2024 level. The model improves on the original UN approach by introducing two extensions: (1) a prospective definition of working age based on the age at which remaining life expectancy falls below 15 years (RLE15), and (2) a youth-retention counterfactual estimating the demographic effect of reducing emigration among residents aged 20–34. |
| Keywords: | Aging population; Replacement migration; Support ratio |
Information about study
| Study programme: | Economic Data Analysis/Data Analysis and Modeling |
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| Type of study programme: | Magisterský studijní program |
| Assigned degree: | Ing. |
| Institutions assigning academic degree: | Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze |
| Faculty: | Faculty of Informatics and Statistics |
| Department: | Department of Economic Statistics |
Information on submission and defense
| Date of assignment: | 16. 4. 2025 |
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| Date of submission: | 1. 12. 2025 |
| Date of defense: | 5. 2. 2026 |
| Identifier in the InSIS system: | https://insis.vse.cz/zp/92157/podrobnosti |