Changes in the European Union’s Energy Dependence on Russia After 2014 and 2022

The aim of this bachelor’s thesis is to assess the differing impacts of the geopolitical events in 2014 and 2022 on the European Union’s energy dependence on the Russian Federation and to determine the extent to which these events contributed to a genuine transformation of European energy policy. The thesis examines whether, and to what extent, the EU’s response to the first crisis following the annexation of Crimea differed from its reaction to the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, and whether a substantial transformation of energy policy occurred only as a result of the second shock. To achieve this objective, the thesis employs a comparative quantitative analysis evaluating the development of energy dependence between 2010 and 2023. The analysis is based on a set of indicators covering security of supply, energy efficiency, and contribution to the trade balance. Key indicators examined include energy dependence rate on Russia, Russia’s share in the import of energy commodities and the degree of concentration in both the supplier base and the energy mix. The analysis reveals fundamentally different patterns of the European Union’s reaction in both periods under review. In the period after 2014, despite political rhetoric emphasising the need for diversification, no adequate practical measures were implemented, and the degree of dependence either stagnated or even deepened. The energy trade between the EU and Russia continued to operate almost unchanged compared to the pre-crisis period. Conversely, the post-2022 period resulted in an unprecedentedly rapid and structural reconfiguration of import flows. Import dependence on oil and coal dropped to historical lows, and in the case of natural gas, dependence was significantly reduced due to the accelerated expansion of liquefied natural gas imports. The comparative findings confirm that a genuine shift in the EU’s approach to energy security materialised only as a consequence of the 2022 events, which triggered an immediate securitisation of dependence on Russian energy as an acute security threat.