The impact of geopolitical tensions between the United States and China on semiconductor availability in the European Union

Rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty have become key factors in recent years influencing global value chains, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which represents a strategic component of modern industry. The escalation of the trade war between the United States and China has led to disruptions in production, trade, and the availability of semiconductors on global markets, while the European Union remains dependent on imports and is therefore vulnerable. This thesis focuses on analyzing the impact of geopolitical risk on semiconductor imports to the EU in the period 2015–2024 through three indices: the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index (TPU), and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU). Using visual analysis, correlation methods, and regression modeling, the relationship between these indices and the volume of semiconductor imports to the EU is quantified. The results indicate that geopolitical and economic policy uncertainty have a statistically significant impact on the volume of semiconductor imports, with GPR and EPU showing the strongest effects, while the impact of TPU is weaker. The findings suggest that the semiconductor market is influenced more by the overall geopolitical environment than by individual trade policy interventions. In a broader context, the thesis highlights the structural vulnerability of the EU to external shocks and emphasizes the importance of diversifying supply chains and strengthening strategic autonomy in the semiconductor sector.