Vliv úrokových sazeb ČNB na investiční chování domácností v České republice: analýza vztahu mezi vklady a investicemi do akciových fondů v kontextu teorie preference likvidity v období 2010–2025

The aim of this bachelor thesis is to empirically analyze the impact of changes in the basic interest rate of the Czech National Bank (CNB) on the investment behavior of Czech households, specifically focusing on their allocation of financial resources between liquid bank deposits and investments in equity funds during the period 2010–2025. The thesis is based on Keynes's liquidity preference theory, with a special focus on the speculative motive, but employs a modified concept of liquid assets as savings accounts and illiquid assets as equity funds. The main hypothesis assumes that an increase in the CNB's interest rate has a negative impact on monthly flows into equity funds, indicating a household preference for holding more liquid assets. The analysis also includes an examination of the impact of other macroeconomic determinants, such as inflation, stock market development, and the output gap. The quantitative research approach uses econometric time series analysis to verify the established hypotheses. Surprisingly, the results of the econometric model show that the impact of both interest rates and inflation is statistically insignificant in the given sample, while the dominant determinant of investment behavior is the development of the stock market itself. The findings of the thesis thus contribute to a better understanding of the reactions of Czech households to monetary policy measures and confirm the strong influence of behavioral factors and market psychology in real-world investor decision-making.