Modelování cenových asymetrií na trhu s mlékem v ČR

The thesis analyzes vertical asymmetric price transmission on the milk market in the Czech Republic in 2013–2025. Price transmission was determined for the farmers' market and the consumer market. Asymmetric error correction models (AECM) with nonlinear cointegration were used for the analysis. For the nonlinear distribution of the long-term relationship, TAR and M-TAR models with estimated threshold values were used. In the entire monitored period, long-term asymmetry was demonstrated only for consumer prices, which responded faster to the decrease in producer prices than to their increase. Subsequently, the entire period was divided into three time periods using the multivariate nonparametric E-Divisive method. In 2013–2017, asymmetric price transmission was demonstrated on both the farmers' and consumers' markets, while in 2022–2025 only on the farmers' market. In the remaining periods, asymmetry was not demonstrated. The results showed that the market levels of producers and consumers behaved asymmetrically. Using Granger causality, the effect of lower levels of the market vertical on prices of higher levels of the price vertical was revealed.