Analýza leteckého trhu: zotavení po COVID pandemii, ztracený potenciál a ekonomická omezení

This thesis investigates the recovery of the global aviation industry following the shock of the COVID pandemic. The primary objective is to quantify the COVID impact on the aviation industry by measuring the speed of the market recovery and calculating the sector’s total lost potential. By applying the Geometric Distributed Lag model to data from several European countries and the United States, the study determines the half-life of the crisis to measure how the initial impact gradually faded over time. Additionally, a simple prediction is used to estimate the volume of lost passengers and flights. The work also explores two secondary objectives: testing the relationship between household wealth and flight demand using real wages in Czechia and evaluating how energy costs influence the supply of available flights. The findings confirm that higher purchasing power increases consumer demand. However, the impact of energy costs was only partially proven, showing that jet fuel prices restrict flight supply in the United States, while crude oil prices in Czechia proved statistically insignificant.