Efektivnost finančních trhů: empirická analýza indexu DXY a rozvíjejících se trhů

his bachelor thesis investigates whether financial markets contain exploitable predictive structure or are efficient in the weak and semi-strong forms of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The analysis focuses on two liquid instruments that represent different segments of the global financial system: the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), as a proxy for a mature developed market, and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), as a benchmark for emerging equity markets. The thesis develops a forecasting framework that combines traditional time-series econometrics with modern machine learning techniques to assess the predictability of returns relative to a simple benchmark model, and to systematically model the conditional volatility. By comparing results across DXY and EEM, the study examines how market maturity and institutional quality shape the limits of predictability, and whether advanced predictive algorithms translate into economically meaningful gains for active trading strategies.