Role vývoje cen nemovitostí ve finanční krizi v USA v letech 2008 až 2009

This bachelor thesis examines the role of house price development in the financial crisis in the United States in 2008-2009. It assumes that movements in the real estate market may also be reflected in broader areas of the real economy. Therefore, the main aim is to quantify the relationship between house price growth in the pre-crisis period from 2000 to 2007 and the depth of the subsequent economic downturn, measured primarily by the change in the unemployment rate between 2008 and 2009. The theoretical part defines the character of the real estate market, the historical context, the main transmission mechanisms, and also deals in more detail with regional heterogeneity within the United States. The following empirical part works with cross-sectional data at the level of U.S. counties and uses regression analysis to estimate the main observed relationship. The results of the main model do not confirm the assumption stated in research hypothesis H1, namely that regions with higher pre-crisis house price growth experienced a deeper increase in unemployment. The same result is also reached by the robustness model using an alternative dependent variable in the form of the change in real GDP per capita between 2008 and 2009. The contribution of this thesis lies primarily in its own analysis of the direct relationship between pre-crisis house price growth and the subsequent deterioration of real economic activity, since the source literature more often focuses on the individual transmission mechanisms of this relationship. At the same time, the thesis also provides a clear representation of the processed county-level data through tables, graphs and descriptive analysis. Keywords: real estate market, financial crisis, USA, house prices, unemployment, regression analysis, cross-sectional data JEL classification: R31, G01, C510, C210