Analýza vlivu makroekonomických faktorů na vývoj rezidenčního trhu s nemovitostmi

This master's thesis analyzes the impact of macroeconomic factors on the development of residential real estate prices in Prague during the period 2011–2025. The dependent variables used are the Deloitte Real Index, which captures actual transaction prices, and the Deloitte Develop Index, which tracks asking prices for new construction. The theoretical section defines the determinants of housing prices and the framework for measuring affordability. The analytical section documents the structural imbalance in the Prague market caused by a shortage of housing construction and the steadily deteriorating affordability of owner-occupied housing. The empirical section estimates four semi-logarithmic regression models with an adjusted coefficient of determination ranging from 0.982 to 0.993. The dominant macroeconomic determinant is the average gross wage; the second most significant factor is the mortgage interest rate, with asking prices for new construction showing approximately twice the sensitivity to its changes compared to actual sales prices. Supply-side models are dominated by construction costs and the number of building permits issued. The realized price model achieves greater explanatory power for macro factors than the asking price model.