Inflační vývoj v zemích Evropské unie v letech 2021–2025 v kontextu měnového režimu a teorie optimální měnové oblasti

The diploma thesis analyses inflation developments in the countries of the European Union over the period 2021–2025, with particular emphasis on inflation persistence and its relationship with the monetary regime of individual member states. The aim of the thesis is to assess whether countries with an autonomous monetary policy exhibited lower inflation persistence during this period than euro area member states. Inflation persistence is estimated using a univariate autoregressive model, with the sum of autoregressive coefficients serving as the main metric and the half-life indicator as a complementary measure. The analysis is further supplemented by additional metrics describing the course of the inflationary episode, namely cumulative inflation, the number of months with inflation above 5%, and inflation volatility. The relationship between these metrics and selected economic factors, chosen on the basis of the optimum currency area theory, is subsequently examined using correlation analysis on a sample of 27 EU countries. The tested hypothesis of lower inflation persistence in countries with an autonomous monetary policy was not confirmed, as no statistically significant relationship was found between the monetary regime and inflation persistence. Differences in the course of the inflationary episode were instead associated with structural characteristics of individual economies, particularly the composition of the consumption basket and the level of inflation prior to the onset of the crisis.