Analýza vlivu stárnutí obyvatelstva na rozpočtové určení daní v Ústeckém kraji v letech 2013– 2023

This master’s thesis analyses the relationship between population ageing and the public finances of the Ústí nad Labem Region in the period 2013–2023, with a focus on the revenue and expenditure sides of the regional budget and the tax revenue allocation system. The added value of the thesis lies in linking the analysis of demographic development with the development of regional public finances and subsequently assessing the relationship between selected demographic and fiscal indicators using simple linear regression analysis. The thesis further extends the analysis by providing an original model-based comparison of two different variants of changes to the tax revenue allocation system: the rejected government proposal from 2024 and the legislation effective from 1 January 2026. Both variants are applied to a common 2023 data baseline, which makes it possible to compare their impact on the revenues of the Ústí nad Labem Region without the influence of different economic and demographic developments. The results of the demographic analysis confirm the gradual ageing of the population of the Ústí nad Labem Region, reflected in an increasing share of people aged 65 and over, a rising ageing index, and a simultaneous decline in the share of the working age population. On the revenue side, however, the expected negative relationship between population ageing and tax revenues is not confirmed. The Region’s tax revenues generally increase over the observed period, including on a per capita basis, and the regression analysis shows a statistically significant positive relationship between the ageing index and tax revenues per capita. On the expenditure side, a statistically significant positive relationship with the ageing index is identified for healthcare and social expenditures. At the same time, the assumption of a long-term decline in capital expenditures is not confirmed, as their development is significantly influenced by the implementation of specific investment projects and the availability of external sources of financing. The model analysis of changes to the tax revenue allocation system produces different results for the two assessed variants. Applying the rejected government proposal from 2024 to the 2023 data results in a modelled decrease in the Ústí nad Labem Region’s revenues from shared taxes, whereas applying the legislation effective from 2026 results in an increase. Although the Region’s relative share slightly decreases under the effective amendment, this decline is more than offset by the increase in the overall share of tax revenues allocated to regions. The thesis therefore contributes to the existing knowledge by showing that the fiscal impacts of population ageing at the regional level cannot be assessed solely on the basis of changes in the age structure of the population. The Region’s revenue position is also affected by nationwide shared tax collection and the design of the redistribution mechanism, while the relationship with demographic ageing is more pronounced in selected areas of regional expenditure during the observed period.