Využití makroobezřetnostní politiky a indikátorů rizika pro regulaci finančních trhů

This dissertation provides a complex study of systemic financial risk and its quantification. In the first part, the paper summarizes the main assumptions and tools of macroprudential policy, which became an important regulatory policy after the financial crisis of 2007-2009. The main parts of the paper deal with the construction of indicators of financial systemic risk and stress, where the paper distinguishes the quantitative expression of the contemporaneous financial stress from the continually developing systemic risk. The paper analyzes several methods of financial stress index construction, whose main task is to identify the contemporaneous rate of risk in different sectors of financial system using market prices of assets. The outcome of the paper is the identification and historical description of periods of heightened financial stress and the recognition of a regional character of the periods of stress. Apart from the index of the contemporaneous stress of financial system, the paper brings a systemic risk indicator, which captures the development of systemic risk in time, and which is a suitable leading indicator for the identification of periods of financial stress. The systemic risk indicator has identified, with a lead of two to three years, the increasing risk of the banking sectors of the countries in the region before the onset of the financial crisis of 2007-2009. In the conclusion, the paper points out the suitability of both indicators for the calculation of the amount of countercyclical capital buffer used in the new Basel III measures.