Analýza vlivu reálného měnového kurzu na zahraniční obchod mezi Českou republikou a Spolkovou republikou Německo

Study analyses the influence of the real exchange rate on the real trade balance between the Czech Republic and Germany, using quarterly data for the period 2000 -- 2014. Previous empirical studies are summarized and their method is used for this analysis. Data are multiplied by consumer price index to achieve real variables and then transformed into natural logarithms. Used variables are trade balance, export, gross domestic products of the Czech Republic and Germany and dummy variables representing economic crisis during the years 2008 -- 2010 and monetary intervention of the Czech National Bank in autumn 2013. All variables were tested for stationarity and were found to be non-stationary, fortunately cointegration among variables was proved. Results failed to prove existence of J-curve concept. Results indicate, that in the short run after depreciation the real trade balance increases, but after that decreases. Economic crisis during the years 2008 -- 2010 led to decrease of the real trade balance. Intervention of the Czech National Bank did not lead in the short run to a decrease of the real trade balance. Granger causality test between the real export, the real trade balance and the real exchange rate did not prove any causal relationships.