Testování hypotézy racionálního očekávání u českých spotřebitelů v období 2005-2014

The work is focused on testing the The Hypothesis of Rational Expectations by R. Lucas for Czech costumers. Hypothesis is theoretically described in historical context and in application context. It describes theoretical influence of the hypothesis to the extreme direction of the theory. The emphasis is on broader concept to this hypothesis then on the rational inflation expectation. The practical testing is made by using the method of correlation and regression of the data from the questionnaire survey by Czech statistical office. The survey is used to make the leading business-cycle indicator. The hypothesis is testing five subjects: rational expectation of economic growth, inflation, financial situation, unemployment and our own future savings. Ordinal variables from the questionnaire are converted to numeric codes and it expresses a linear relationship with an equivalent quantity. The hypothesis has been at least partially confirmed in all studied subjects, except unemployment. The change of the expectation in the time evolution is at least correlate with reality. Existence of the rationality in expectation is confirmed, extreme version of the theory is rejected. From the analysis results we can see an overhang of pessimism in the society, which is changed in linear identical relationship with the real economy. This way of testing The Hypothesis of Rational Expectation is the first in Czech Republic of its kind, which is main part of added value of this work.