Analýza ůvěrového vývoje a hospodářského cyklu v ČR

The ongoing credit contradiction accompanied by the massive expansion of monetary policy urges on studying the causality between credit creation and real layers of economy. The purpose of this thesis lies in exploration of links between credit and economic cycle based on vector autoregression model using the czech statistical data. The objective rises from theoretical postulates of economic schools, whose theories are based on causal relationship between credits and economic growth. Present empirical studies suggest that although the credit crunch is closely related to the capital crunch, direction of the mutual relationship is still ambiguous. Based on Granger causality, we found that the delay of credit values relating to households and enterprises influence the future gross domestic product. The bond seems to be less intensive in transition phases of economic cycle, when situations such as credit crunch occur.