Analýza rizika strategického záměru společnosti Vinselekt Michlovský

The purpose of this diploma thesis is to prepare the strategic business plan for Vinselekt Michlovský a.s., identify and evaluate associated risks and propose possible ways of their reduction. The theoretical part provides a comprehensive overview of theoretical background concerning strategic management and planning, business environment analysis and risk management. The practical part focuses on the application of theoretical methods to evaluate firm’s current situation and possibilities of its future development. At first, strategic plan is elaborated based on fundamentals like firm’s mission, vision and strategic goals. Next step is performing strategic analysis using methods like PESTLE analysis, Porter's five forces model and partially financial analysis. Outcomes from macro and micro environment analysis is consequently used as a basis for financial plan calculation and risk factors identification. Key risk factors are incorporated into a mathematical model for Monte Carlo simulation to determine their impact on achieving company's strategic goals. The result of the Monte Carlo simulation shows that the risk of not achieving the strategic objectives is moderate. In conclusion, possible ways of dealing with identified risks are proposed.