Využití metod manažerského rozhodování (za rizika a nejistoty)

The aim of this thesis is to apply methods of managerial decision making under risks and uncertainties while determining an appropriate supplier for a toy import company. The process of decision making will focus on the selection of a potential toy supplier with the most suitable offer for the company. The specific goal of the thesis is to find and evaluate an optimal decision variant while using practical methods used for decision making when discrete and continuous risks factors are included. While working with discrete risks factors and decision making under uncertainties, the Minimax, Maximax, Laplace, Hurwitz and Savage principles will be used. When decision making under risks, the expected value rule and then the expected value and variance rule will be used. Furthermore, the attitude towards risk and its influence on the choice of the optimal variant of decision will be processed with the usage of the utility function. When working with continuous factors, the Monte Carlo method and sensitivity analysis will be used. The usage of the Lumina Analytica program is expected for this purpose. The structure of the decision making problem will be analyzed using an influence diagram and in case of needing to solve a multistage process, the decision tree will be used.