Analýza modelů migrace a jejich empirická verifikace zaměřená na regionální migraci

The aim of this thesis is to verify the validity of selected models of internal migration using quantitative methods and to extend these models and to answer questions: what the main determinants of migration are and how migration affects the economy. The empirical verification was performed using panel data and econometric analysis. Internal migration in the Czech Republic and Poland was analyzed in detail and the factors that determined internal migration in these countries were analyzed. The estimates indicate the validity of the neoclassical theory assumptions, which states that wage differences are the key determinants of internal migration, which is also in line with current empirical research (see An et al., 2017; Carlsen et al., 2013; Laamanen, 2014) and in contrast to the research by Pop-Silaghi and Ghatak (2011) or Kureková (2015) the regional differences in unemployment rates also seemed to be a relevant factor in addition to the wage differences. In both countries, a positive relationship between the migration rate and a delayed explanatory variable expressing the migration rate last year was indicated. The inflow of migration into the region raises another inflow of migration, which would signal that internal migration contributes to further inequalities between regions. However, this was not confirmed later by the Granger causality test. The results of the analysis showed that rising housing costs had a negative impact on the migration rate, which is in line with the assumption that the interest in living in the region would decrease as the housing costs rise in the region. The interaction root test showed that the inhabitants of Poland were more sensitive to decision-making on migration in times of economic crisis than those of the Czech Republic. In terms of push-pull factors, the determinants of wages in the host region, labor demand in the industrial sector of the economy, and foreign human capital all appeared to be pull factors. On the other hand, rising unemployment, housing costs, and urbanization appeared to be push factors. Furthermore, the impact of regional migration flows on the convergence of regions in EU countries was tested. To estimate the impact of interregional migration on income and unemployment differences, several estimates of VAR models were made and the Granger causality test was used. The results do not support the conclusions of the neoclassical regional development theory on the convergence of regions and at the same time, disparities between regions have not been confirmed as a result of migration flows.