Měnověpolitická rozhodnutí ČNB v letech 2012—2021

The bachelor thesis analyses monetary policy decisions of the Czech National Bank (CNB) in 2012–2021. The theoretical part of the thesis focuses on inflation and monetary policy. The practical part is devoted to the development of the monetary policy of the CNB, evaluation of inflation targeting and the success of forecasts. On the basis of the calculations performed, hypothesis number 1 is falsified in the following wording: "The CNB was successful in inflation targeting in 2012–2021." Deviations between the inflation target and the reality may be caused by exogenous factors, anchored inflation expectations or biases in the forecasting model. Because of the CNB's forecasting activity, which reflects its forecasts from monetary policy inflation, hypothesis number 2: "The CNB was more accurate in forecasting monetary policy inflation than headline inflation in 2012–2021", is examined and verified. In relation to the external factors of inflation, hypothesis number 3 in the wording: "There is a relationship between the relative CPI and the oil price" is verified. This finding is consistent with theoretical research that points to low demand elasticity due to the lack of substitutes. The bachelor thesis includes monetary policy recommendations to address the current situation.