Analýza připravenosti systému sociálních služeb pro seniory v letech 2010-2021 na budoucí zvýšení poptávky v ČR

The thesis deals with the topic of the readiness of social services for the elderly for the future increase in demand. The initial hypothesis is tested by the method of system analysis, which is divided into statistical and qualitative parts in the practical part of the thesis. Based on the research outputs, the initial hypothesis that the system of social services for the elderly is not prepared for the expected increase in demand in the long term could not be confirmed or refuted. This happened mainly because the results of the research in the individual variants were ambivalent in nature, so it was not possible to draw a categorical conclusion. The research identified three variants of segment capacity forecasting – low, medium and high. The high prediction variant, when a number of defined assumptions are met, refutes the initial hypothesis of segment unpreparedness. The level of capacity in this variant is sufficient until 2050 and reaches a local minimum in 2035 due to the high growth rate of the number of people in the 80+ age group. The low and medium variants demonstrate sub-optimal capacity growth rates, leading to rapidly declining levels of service provision. Both variants therefore confirm the initial hypothesis. The qualitative part of the research reveals two areas as crucial for the future readiness of the segment – sufficient number of health personnel in the labour market and the introduction of stabilisation mechanisms in the financing system of these services. In the event of unfavourable developments in these areas, it can be concluded that the segment will not be ready for future increases in demand even in the model situation of the high capacity forecast variant. Based on the outputs of both research parts, the thesis concludes by defining the economic and political basis for increasing the readiness of the system of social services for the elderly.