Vliv dopadů vládních zásahů na daňové výnosy v ČR

This diploma thesis examines changes in personal income tax in terms of estimated impact on tax collection. All examined changes are complemented with expected impact and ex-post analysis. The main subject of the research is the tax reform implemented in 2021, that abolished the “super gross” tax base. This thesis also analyses further measures affecting the tax collection such as measures related to the covid-19 pandemic. A developed regression model based on a time series cointegration analysis of tax collection and employment trends puts the impact of these government interventions at CZK 65 billion. The original government estimation of the reform impacts was CZK 102 billion. Furthermore, the payment of government pandemic refund to the entrepreneurs from this tax collection resulted in an additional CZK 19.1 billion reduction in 2021. Changes in tax credits for children between 2015 and 2017 and the introduction of the new tax relief for child placement with its impact on tax collections were also examined. The analysis model indicates a negative impact on tax collections although these measures are statistically insignificant.