Analýza rizika strategického záměru společnosti Biopekárna Zemanka s.r.o

The aim of this master´s thesis is to identify and analyse the risks that could impact ability of the company Biopekárna Zemanka s.r.o. to reach their strategic goals. The theoretical part deals with the description of the tools of strategic analysis and provides us a literature review regarding the strategic management and especially the risk management on which the theoretical basis for the practical part is formed. At the beginning of the practical part, the company and its strategic points are presented. It is followed by introduction of the business plan and setting the strategic goals. Subsequently, the strategic analysis is conducted, where the external environment is examined using PESTLE analysis and Porter's five forces model the internal environment is examined using the VRIO analysis of resources and financial analysis. The strategic analysis results in identifying the opportunities and threats of the external environment and the strengths and weaknesses of the internal environments which serve as data for SWOT analysis. Based on the relationship between the threats and the comapny´s strategic objectives, significant risks are found. Afterwards, a financial plan that considers the most important risks and different scenarios of the future is developed. These data and predictions are being used as inputs to the Monte Carlo simulation. Accoriding to the results of this method, it is possible to estimate the probability with which the company will achieve its set strategic goals. Based on the results of the simulation, the company will manage to increase total sales in 2026 by more than 20 % compared to 2021 with a probability of 86,36 %. At the same time, the company will not achieve the cumulative operating profit EBITDA of 12 000 thousand CZK with a probability of 27,532 %. At the end of the thesis, measures are proposed to avoid the identified risks or to minimize their adverse impact.