Vývoj trhu s ropou v letech 1990-2022 na příkladu USA, Ruska a Číny

The aim of this thesis is to provide a comprehensive quantitative analysis of oil price developments, including an analysis of the volatility and determinants of oil prices from 1990 to 2022. The thesis also aims to assess the accuracy of oil price forecasts and to examine trends in oil production and consumption using the US, Russia and China as examples. Another objective of the paper is to test the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. Given the importance of a commodity like oil to humanity, tracking oil market developments has been a relevant topic for decades. The theoretical part defines the regression analysis method, price volatility, the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis and reference benchmarks in oil price formation. Furthermore, previous research in the areas covered in the practical part of the thesis are presented through a literature search. The practical part elaborates the price evolution of WTI, Brent and Dubai crude oil including volatility from 1990 to 2022. The price determinants of crude oil are also examined, and the accuracy of the World Bank's oil price forecasts is also investigated. The penultimate chapter analyses trends in oil production and consumption in the US, Russia and China. The final chapter completes the research by testing the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. The thesis shows that price developments of benchmarks are highly correlated with each other over the period under study and that oil is a highly volatile commodity, especially during economic crises. The relationship between the natural gas price and the oil price is evaluated as the strongest determinant of the oil price among the factors studied. Research on the accuracy of price forecasts reaches the expected conclusion that the shorter the forecast time horizon, the more accurate the price forecast. The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, based on a comparison of average oil price growth with world oil price growth, was not confirmed.