Subjektivní inflační očekávání domácností v ČR v roce 2024

The aim of this diploma thesis is to determine whether the short-term inflation expectations of households in the Czech Republic in 2024 are formed rationally. Furthermore, the thesis examines what other factors influence the formation of these inflation expectations of households in the Czech Republic in 2024. In the theoretical part, attention is first paid to the theory and development of inflation in the Czech Republic. The main section focuses on inflation expectations, their measurement, formation, and classification based on their characteristics. Another part connects the topic of inflation expectations with the field of behavioral economics and heuristics, emphasizing its connection to the practical part. In the practical part, two forms of research are chosen. Specifically, a questionnaire survey and a structured interview. The analysis of the questionnaire survey concludes that short-term inflation expectations of households in the Czech Republic in 2024 are not rational. Further analysis of the survey revealed that the formation of inflation expectations is influenced by heuristics, specifically the representativeness heuristic, the availability heuristic, and the overconfidence heuristic. The study also observed the influence of gender, social, and demographic characteristics on the formation of household inflation expectations. From the other research method, structured interviews, it emerged that the financial market forms its expectations based on the analysis of objective market data and is therefore less prone to subjective emotions and distortions in inflation expectations. The conclusion of the thesis addresses the communication of the Czech National Bank to the public and provides recommendations on how this communication could be made more effective.