Testování mzdové Phillipsovy křivky v krajích České republiky v letech 2009 až 2023

The bachelor’s thesis analyzes the relationship between the general unemployment rate and wage growth in the modern history of the Czech Republic at the regional level from 2009 to 2023. The main objective of the thesis is to verify the existence of a negative relationship between these variables, known as the Phillips curve. The theoretical part focuses on the historical development of this concept and its modifications, while also introducing related theoretical approaches that influence this relationship. The empirical part is based on time series analysis and seeks to explain the dynamics of wage growth and total labor costs using variables such as the unemployment rate, inflation expectations, lagged inflation, and the deviation from the natural rate of unemployment. The data used for the analyzed period on both annual and quarterly bases come from the Czech Statistical Office, the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, and CEIC. The results of the estimated models confirm a statistically significant negative effect of the general unemployment rate on wage growth, and it was shown that total labor costs explain this dependency better than commonly observed nominal wages. The analysis thus confirms the existence of the Phillips curve under the conditions of the Czech Republic. The contribution of the thesis lies in its regional approach to this issue and its analysis from the perspective of labor costs. The confirmation of the validity of this relationship brings important implications for economic policy, as the existence of the Phillips curve suggests the need to consider the interconnection between inflation and employment when striving for macroeconomic stability.