Transformace na elektromobilitu a její vliv na spotřebu elektřiny v ČR

This thesis examines the transformation of individual passenger transport to electromobility and analyses its implications for overall electricity consumption in the Czech Republic. The primary objective is to quantify the additional electricity demand generated by the operation of battery electric passenger vehicles up to the year 2050. A predictive model based on a logistic curve is used to estimate the evolution of the vehicle fleet under two scenarios: a scenario of natural market adoption and a scenario reflecting the EU’s legislative ban on the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles from 2035. To refine the estimates of electricity consumption, the thesis uses empirical operational data from a fleet of more than 500 electric vehicles operated by the ČEZ Group. The results show that real-world consumption under Czech conditions is approximately 24% higher than WLTP values. The modelled annual electricity demand for electric vehicle operation in 2050 ranges between 7.9 and 8.3 TWh, depending on the scenario, which corresponds to roughly 14% of total electricity consumption in the Czech Republic in 2024. From a macroeconomic perspective, this increase is gradual and manageable, and provided that adequate generation capacity is developed and smart charging is implemented, passenger electromobility does not pose a threat to the country’s energy security.