Vliv fiskálních deficitů na inflaci: Případová studie Argentiny

This thesis examines the impact of fiscal deficits on inflation in Argentina over the period 1961-2023. The main motivation for this topic is Argentina's history of chronic inflation on one hand and fiscal deficits on the other, which raises the question of whether a relationship between these two variables exists. The thesis explains this relationship on a theoretical basis through Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic, the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, and the Tanzi effect. In the empirical part, two SVAR models are implemented, where the first, containing four variables, answers the main research question - whether deficits affect inflation, and the second, extended by the variable M0, answers the sub-research question - whether the monetization of deficits influences inflation. The results show a positive impact of deficits on inflation; specifically, an increase in the deficit of approximately 1.8 percentage points of GDP is associated with an increase in inflation of approximately 19 percentage points two years after the deficit shock. The results further confirm that in Argentina, deficits do indeed transmit into inflation through their monetization, which indicates a positive answer to the sub-research question. Finally, the Tanzi effect was also examined, but did not prove to be statistically significant for Argentina over the observed period.