Finanční centra a regionální přesun moci: Role Kazachstánu a Číny v nové asijské ekonomice

The purpose of this thesis is to assess whether the observed shift of global capital flow towards Asian regions and specifically to China and Kazakhstan, is associated with changes in the global structure of finance, compared to the established dominance of traditionally developed European financial centers. The current shift of global investment flows can be explained by a structural change in the financial markets of the Asian countries under consideration, which is based on the institutional reforms. This thesis will answer the question of whether the shift can be considered a temporary cyclical fluctuation or a new financial trend. Therefore, this thesis aims at determining whether there was a significant structural change or cyclical adjustment of the distribution between China and Kazakhstan investments flows and their further growth. To achieve this goal, the study will use descriptive analysis of global and national FDI, policy comparisons and indicator analysis of the development of financial centers. As a result of analysis, China has been shown to become an important two-way investment player. At the same time, Kazakhstan investments have diversified, moving from primarily extraction-based to diversified investment including financial services, fintech projects and non-extraction projects, following the creation of Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC). The analysis highlights the fact that turning points were caused by institution reforms rather than macroeconomic shifts, including China's WTO accession, QFII, Stock Connect and Bond Connect, Kazakhstan introduction of AIFC with English Common Law and Investment Policy Concept 2024. Tests of H1 and H2 hypothesis confirm the existence of the Structural Shift in the financial landscape of China and Kazakhstan, since Asia's growing share of investment flows continued for over twenty years, maintaining stability through business cycles, including the period after 2022 with high interest rates and geopolitical fragmentation of the world order. Indicators of FDI stock and flow, IPO, bond market development and Global Financial Centers Index are consistent and reject any cyclical explanation of the shifts. The present bachelor’s thesis contributes to the debate on how financial power is evolving on a global scale. This work proves that evolution results from reforms within financial institutions, laws, and policies. Its scale and speed depend not only on the size of national economy but also on the pace of its development. Analyzing the situation in China and Kazakhstan, one can assume that an appropriate reform strategy varies depending on the size of a country, however, gradual implementation of reforms within national borders works better for larger economies, whereas copying foreign institutions, such as the AIFC, provides a viable tool for competing for smaller countries. In conclusion, the above-mentioned evidence indicates a shift of financial power from Western traditional centers to Asian ones due to development of Asian capital markets, growing prominence of financial centers in international ranking, and clustering of IPOs and bonds activities in Asia.