Dopad obchodní války mezi USA a Čínou na Vietnam: Efekty odklonu obchodu a růst exportu

This thesis analyzes the impact of the trade war between the United States and China on Vietnam, focusing on trade diversion effects and export growth during the period 2018-2025. It examines how US tariffs on Chinese goods reshaped import demand and redirected trade flows toward Vietnam. Using a mixed-methods approach that combines sector-level trade data with qualitative analysis, the study identifies key industries that benefited most, including electronics, machinery, textiles, and furniture. The findings indicate that Vietnam’s exports to the US increased significantly, faster than to other major partners, providing evidence of concentrated trade diversion. However, the analysis also shows that this growth remained closely linked to imports of intermediate inputs from China, echoing a reconfiguration rather than a full relocation of global value chains. While the trade diversion contributed to positive macroeconomic outcomes such as higher GDP growth, increased foreign direct investment, and employment expansion, it also introduced risks related to external dependence, trade policy uncertainty, and transshipment concerns. The thesis argues that Vietnam’s sustainability depends on its ability to upgrade its industrial structure and strengthen domestic value creation.