Dopad měnové rady na udržitelnost deficitů běžného účtu: případ Bosny a Hercegoviny (2000–2020)

The aim of this bachelor thesis is to assess how the currency board arrangement affects the sustainability of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s current account deficits over the period 2000–2020. The thesis builds on the theoretical framework of currency boards and the intertemporal approach to current account sustainability and empirically uses annual World Bank data on the current account balance in percent of GDP, foreign exchange reserves, external debt, foreign direct investment and workers’ remittances. Methodologically, it combines descriptive statistics and time‑series graphs with correlation analysis, a decomposition of current account deficit financing, a threshold analysis based on standard benchmarks (a −5% of GDP deficit for the current account, three months of imports for reserves and 60% of GNI for external debt) and simple OLS regressions interpreted as a complementary descriptive tool. The results show that Bosnia and Herzegovina has persistently recorded structurally large current account deficits that often exceed the −5% of GDP threshold, while foreign exchange reserves remain above the three‑month benchmark for most of the period and gradually increase, and external debt stays above 60% of GNI for a considerable time. The financing decomposition confirms the key role of remittances as a stable non‑debt‑creating source that in most years is sufficient to cover the entire deficit and allows for reserve accumulation, whereas FDI play a more complementary and cyclical role. The threshold analysis and the testing of hypotheses H1–H3 lead to the conclusion that, under the currency board, current account deficits have been conditionally sustainable – they have not triggered a reserve crisis, but at the cost of higher external indebtedness and strong reliance on continued capital inflows, especially remittances.