Ekonomické dopady separatistického procesu Katalánska: dodavatelské řetězce automobilového a farmaceutického průmyslu

This bachelor's thesis examines the economic impacts of the separatist process in Catalonia on the supply chains of the automotive and pharmaceutical industries in the context of recent political changes caused by the 2017 independence referendum. The main objective of this bachelor's thesis is to investigate and evaluate the influence of political uncertainty on the functioning of supply chains in selected sectors and identify key factors affecting their future resilience to secession scenarios. In the first theoretical part, the bachelor's thesis focuses primarily on the relationship between the separatist process and economic effects, the concept of political uncertainty, and global value chains. The second part first concentrates on the context of Catalonia as such, particularly the political and legal developments after 2017 and the macroeconomic profile of the region. Furthermore, the chapter deals with the presentation of the automotive and pharmaceutical industries as significant sectors for supplies and exports in the region. The third part then analyzes the actual impacts of Catalan secession on supply chains. This part addresses descriptive analysis of key macroeconomic and sectoral indicators (GDP, exports and imports of the pharmaceutical and automotive industries in the years 2000 – 2025), model analysis using local projections quantifying impulse responses of exports to shocks in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the medium and high scenarios for both sectors, and scenario analysis of three variants of the secession process – the reference scenario, agreed secession, and unilateral independence. In the conclusion itself, the chapter attempts to outline further possible developments in the supply chains of the automotive and pharmaceutical industries in Catalonia.