Analýza nezaměstnanosti v EU pomocí panelových dat

This diploma thesis deals with the analysis of unemployment within individual member countries of the European Union based on panel data. For this analysis, the Phillips curve price modification was chosen. The inflation rate is the second used variable outside the unemployment rate. This diploma thesis analyses the relationship between these two variables using the annual data from 2007 to 2017. Moreover, the analysis on time series showing the relationship of variables on aggregated data is used in this diploma thesis. All 28 members of the European Union are considered in this thesis, the unemployment rate is calculated on the economically active population aged from 15 to 74 years. The data used for analyses are from two sources, from Eurostat and from FRED (Federal reserve bank of St. Louis). Furthermore, two dummy variables illustrating the crisis years 2008 and 2009 are used for econometric models. All data are complete and do not contain any missing values. In general, this diploma thesis summarizes the economic theory of the European union, inflation, unemployment and the Phillips curve. Econometrically it deals with Hodrick-Prescott filter, linear regression model, least squares method, linear mixed models – random intercept model and random intercept and slope model. Additionally, it deals with variance analysis and likelihood ratio test. The conclusion of this diploma thesis was confirmation of inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate on both aggregated and panel data. For panel data, a random intercept model was the most suitable for use. Dummy variable for year 2009 was statistically insignificant in all estimated models, while dummy variable for year 2008 was always statistically significant.