Vliv devizových intervencí ČNB na zahraniční obchod ČR

The bachelor thesis deals with the analysis of the impact of foreign exchange intervention carried out by the Czech National Bank between 2013-2017 on foreign trade with the largest trading partners of the Czech Republic, including Germany, Austria, Slovakia and Poland. The aim of this thesis is to confirm the hypothesis that in accordance with the theory of the J-curve, because of the failure to meet the Marshall-Lerner condition, due to currency devaluation, due to currency devaluation to the Czech Republic's balance of payments deterioration in the short term and in the long period when the condition was met, to the improvement of the balance of payments. The hypothesis was tested using monthly data, that reflect the development of Czech foreign trade, domestic and foreign GDP and the nominal exchange rate from 2005-2017. Johansen's cointegration was applied to the long-term analysis, and the vector error correction model was used for the short-term analysis. The testing of the hypothesis showed that in the case of Germany and Poland the J-curve theory could not be applied to the effects of foreign exchange intervention. Slovakia and Austria were excluded due to their unsuitability for co-integration tests. Thus, the initial hypothesis was rebutted, suggesting that the above mentioned countries did not deteriorate their trade balance in the short term after the foreign exchange intervention and did not improve it in the long term.