Analýza cenových bublin na trhu s nemovitostmi v České republice

The thesis examines whether residential property prices in the Czech Republic were overvalued in the period from 2013 to 2023. It uses quarterly data of the house price index, HICP, rents and wages, from which ratio indicators are constructed. The empirical part combines cointegration tests, time-series filtering, multivariate regression, Granger causality tests and a simple application of the Gordon model. The results show that house prices, rents, incomes and interest rates form an interconnected system and that short-term price changes are significantly linked to the development of mortgage interest rates and the volume of new mortgage loans. The thesis does not find clear evidence of the existence of a price bubble; instead, it suggests that price growth is largely explainable by a combination of fundamental factors, although in some years there are more pronounced positive deviations. The main contribution lies in the construction of consistent quarterly indices for the Czech Republic and in the integration of multiple analytical approaches.