Search of the most suitable method of estimation of output gap for the czech economy

By monetary policy decisions, central banks use output gap to keep macroeconomic variables at their natural levels. A substantial disadvantage of this variable is the fact that it is an unobservable variable which is very problematic to measure, although it is possible to estimate it with various methods of estimation. This thesis aims to find the most suitable method of estimation for Czech economy. Thirteen methods have been chosen for this aim: linear trend, quadratic trend, HP filter, band-pass filters, robust trend, univariate unobserved component model, two types of production function, two SVAR models, multivariate HP filter and multivariate unobserved component model. Own estimations have shown that estimated trajectories of unobservable states were not identical. For own selection of the most suitable method of estimation, quantitative (ability to forecast inflation ,a growth of product and data revisions by selected national and international organisations) and qualitative criterions (qualities of methods of estimation, transparency and easy application) have been selected, where emphasis was put on quantitative criterions. Results of this thesis will show that the most suitable method of estimation output gap for Czech economy is multivariate unobserved component model.